Housing markets tend to fluctuate according to the season and the economy. Factors affecting the market include changing buyer behavior throughout the year and, importantly, mortgage rates. As of October 1, 2025, mortgage rates have slipped to their lowest point of the year, and that shift is setting the stage for an unusual Fall 2025 housing market in San Bernardino County. While fall is usually a period when both inventory and demand slide downward in tandem, this year’s combination of improving affordability and elevated buyer interest is creating a new dynamic that sellers and buyers alike need to understand. This may lead to a robust seller's market and shorter Expected Market Times.
Lower Mortgage Rates Change the Equation
At the start of 2025, mortgage rates hovered just above 7%. By mid-January, they had even climbed past 7.25%. But since May, rates have trended steadily downward, dipping below 6.75% in August and reaching about 6.25% by mid-September — the lowest levels since October 2024. This steady improvement has come alongside weaker job numbers and broader economic adjustments, but for homebuyers, it means something very tangible: better affordability. For a $600,000 purchase with 20% down, today’s average payment is $2,993 per month. That’s only $62 higher than a year ago, and about $353 less than in 2023 when rates were above 7.4%.
A Different Kind of Fall 2025 Housing Market
Traditionally, San Bernardino County’s fall housing market sees inventory and demand both tapering off, resulting in little change to the overall market pace. But this year is shaping up differently. Rates under 6.5% are keeping buyers engaged, even as supply trends downward. Demand has already grown 9% over last year, with 1,572 pending sales compared to 1,445 at this time in 2024.
Key figures shaping today’s market:
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Mortgage Rates: 6.25% to 6.37% range, lowest since 2024.
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Pending Sales: 1,572, up 9% year-over-year.
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Inventory: 6,231 homes, 17% higher than 2024 and nearly double the 3,888 available in 2023.
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Expected Market Time: 119 days, compared to 111 days last year and 81 days in 2023.
This means buyers now have more choices than in recent years, but sellers are facing increased competition. Still, if rates remain favorable, the Expected Market Time could shorten as inventory tightens and demand holds steady or grows further.
What Buyers and Sellers Can Expect
San Bernardino County’s housing market is bucking the usual fall slowdown. Lower mortgage rates are the catalyst for this shift, leading to a rise in demand. If mortgage rates stay under 6.5% for several months, the county could see a repeat of last year’s uncharacteristic autumn surge — but this time on a larger scale and with more staying power. Buyers will benefit from improved affordability and selection, while sellers will need to be mindful of pricing and presentation to stand out in the housing market. Sellers who adapt quickly and buyers who seize the opportunity could both find themselves well-positioned heading into the end of the year. Sellers looking to list their homes may find favorable housing market conditions in San Bernardino County, particularly if they price their properties competitively and ensure they are in excellent, turn-key condition. To help sellers determine the right price for their homes in a competitive housing market, you can use the Perrie Mundy Realty Group's free home valuation tool to find out what your home is worth right now.