In San Bernardino County, mortgage rates have stabilized in a range that buyers have been waiting for. After spending much of the past three years above 6.5%—often well above 7%—rates have now held between 6.13% and 6.38% for nearly three consecutive months. This is the longest period below 6.5% since August 2022 and represents a meaningful improvement in affordability for San Bernardino County homebuyers. This shift has occurred gradually, but its impact is clear. Affordability is stronger than it was a year ago, demand is slightly higher than last year at this time, and the data suggests conditions may be better aligned for increased market activity heading into 2026.

Lower Mortgage Rates May Improve Affordability

Mortgage rates peaked in late 2022, hitting 7.37%, which caused affordability to decline sharply and demand to fall to levels that remained consistent—though very low—throughout 2023, 2024, and most of 2025. Anytime rates approached or exceeded 7%, buyer activity slowed. However, since early September, rates have remained consistently below 6.5% for the first extended period in more than a year. This adjustment is meaningful when translated into monthly payments. Every quarter-point rate improvement has a measurable effect on affordability, and today’s rates are nearly three-quarters of a percent lower than last year. Changes in mortgage rates have a direct impact on the monthly cost of a home. For a $600,000 mortgage, here is how monthly payments shift at various rate levels:

• 2.65% (2021): $2,418

• 3.25% (January 2022): $2,611

• 7.37% (October 2022 peak): $4,142

• 7% (early 2025): $3,992

• 6.25% (today): $3,694

• 6% (forecast within range): $3,597

• 5.5% (possible future improvement): $3,407

The difference between 7% and 6.25% alone is significant—about $298 per month. At 5.5%, the improvement grows to nearly $600 per month. These changes explain why even a small downward shift in rates can make homeownership more attainable. As evidence, demand today sits at 1,324 pending sales over the past 30 days—the highest late-November reading since 2021. While still 43% lower than 2021 levels, it is slightly higher than the past three years. This modest lift in demand also corresponds directly to the current improved affordability. 

Current Economic Conditions Support Stable Rates

The economic environment in late 2025 is materially different from last year. In 2024, after some mid-year softening, economic resilience pushed mortgage rates back above 7% and reduced buyer momentum. This year, the national economy has slowed more consistently. Labor markets have softened, overall growth has cooled, and financial markets are increasingly aligned with the expectation that rates will remain in a more moderate range.

Current forecasts project mortgage rates to stay between 6% and 6.5% throughout 2026. Unlike the temporary dip in late 2024, this year’s sustained improvement has lasted nearly twice as long, and it arrives ahead of the 2026 Spring Market rather than after it. With more predictable rates and improved affordability, demand in 2026 is expected to rise meaningfully above the levels seen in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Improved Rates Can Prime the Market for 2026

The San Bernardino County housing market has operated under strained affordability for more than three years. Now, with mortgage rates holding below 6.5% for an extended period, buyers are finding more room in their budgets, and demand is showing early signs of recovery. While demand remains far below the highly competitive market of 2021, today’s conditions are the strongest they have been since that period. If rates stay within the projected 6%–6.5% range, the 2026 Spring Market is positioned to outperform prior years and deliver the most balanced affordability environment the region has seen since 2022. This data-driven trend suggests a more active market ahead—not driven by speculation, but by measurable improvements in mortgage rates and the resulting increase in buyer capacity.

As market conditions prime the housing market for lower mortgage rates and better affordability, seasoned real estate investors and first-time home buyers should prepare for their real estate search. Particularly for first-time home buyers, there are a few key steps to fulfill and tips to learn. Buying your first home is an exciting milestone, but it can also feel overwhelming without the right information. Our First-Time Home Buyer Tips will help first-time home buyers navigate the process with confidence. From understanding pre-approval and mortgage options to finding the right neighborhood, we provide the essential insights that will help you make informed decisions.